The Madman Theory, reloaded: Bibi’s big bet and the ghosts of Armageddon — Che Ran

JUNE 14 — There’s something about men who cling to power for too long. They start to believe their own warnings. They confuse nightmares for policy, ghosts for threats. For three decades, Binyamin “Bibi” Netanyahu has been warning that Iran is the gravest threat to Israel’s survival. He’s raised the alarm in parliaments, on CNN, in closed-door meetings with US presidents, and — most infamously — with cartoon bombs at the United Nations.

And now, with the world distracted, with American politics gridlocked and the Arab street roiling in the aftermath of Gaza, Bibi has done what many feared he might: he made the nightmare real.

Friday’s flames

On Friday night, the Israeli Air Force launched wave after wave of airstrikes deep into Iranian territory. The targets weren’t symbolic. These were no dusty outposts or token retaliatory strikes. Bibi’s jets went for the jugular — uranium enrichment facilities, IRGC command centres, and senior officials with unpronounceable names and frightening portfolios. The kind of targets that, if hit hard enough, can provoke a response that turns the sky black.

Netanyahu wasn’t acting out of character. This is a man who’s defined his political career around the Iranian threat. For Bibi, it’s not just personal — it’s biblical. He sees himself as a modern-day David slinging stones at the nuclear Goliath in Tehran.

But here’s the catch: what if this isn’t David vs. Goliath? What if this is Sarajevo, 1914, and no one’s steering the bus?

The spectre of escalation

Let’s be clear. Iran is a nasty piece of work. The regime is brutal, repressive, and cynical. It funds Hezbollah and backs Syrian war criminals. Give them a nuclear bomb, and you’ve got a whole new level of hell in the region. Israel is absolutely entitled to defend itself, even preemptively. No sane person wants the Ayatollahs to get their hands on nukes.

But the question isn’t whether Israel can strike. It’s whether it should — and what happens next.

Iran has already vowed vengeance. The Supreme Leader is not known for his sense of restraint. Hezbollah, now sitting on more missiles than most European countries, has itchy fingers and a permanent grudge. The Houthis in Yemen — yes, they matter now — have already lobbed missiles at commercial shipping lanes and threatened the Gulf. And Iraq? Already teetering on the edge. This isn’t just sabre-rattling. It’s a fuse that’s been lit. And the powder keg? It stretches from Tel Aviv to Tehran to Tampa.

Washington’s dilemma

And what of America? The world’s reluctant hall monitor.

The Biden administration was not consulted in advance. And while the White House issued a predictably lukewarm statement of support for Israel’s “right to self-defence,” insiders are reportedly livid. The US has 30,000 troops across the Middle East, from Al Udeid to Bahrain. Every one of them just got a bigger target on their back.

Washington now faces an impossible choice: back Israel and risk being dragged into another catastrophic war, or distance itself and watch its most important ally in the region spiral alone. There’s no winning hand here — just varying degrees of bloodshed and blowback.

A war nobody wants, but everyone expects

Let’s talk worst-case scenarios. Iran retaliates, and the spiral begins. Saudi Arabia, once cautiously thawing ties with Israel, panics and arms up. The UAE gets jittery. Oil prices skyrocket. The Strait of Hormuz — a narrow artery through which a fifth of the world’s oil flows — gets blockaded. Cue a global recession. Meanwhile, Israeli cities face nightly missile barrages. Civilians die. Western capitals face protests, cyberattacks, and worse.

And for what?

To delay a nuclear programme that’s been scattered, hardened, and made redundant by decades of preparation? To send a message? To flex? Bibi may have bought a few months of security, but at what cost?

The domestic distraction

And let’s not forget the man behind the curtain. Netanyahu is not just fighting Iran. He’s fighting for his political life. Besieged by corruption charges, hated by large swaths of his own people, and held in power by a Frankenstein coalition of extremists and zealots, Bibi needed a distraction. What better than a good old-fashioned existential threat?

This is the Madman Theory redux: convince your enemies you’re crazy enough to do anything, and maybe they’ll back down. But that only works if they don’t call your bluff. If Iran strikes back hard—and let’s not pretend they don’t have the capability—it won’t be a clever ploy. It’ll be a firestorm.

Asia watches closely

Meanwhile, in the East, Beijing smiles behind its Great Wall of poker faces. The Middle East burns, and China moves quietly into the vacuum — offering “peace” deals, energy partnerships, and soft-power plays while America gets dragged back into the quicksand it spent two decades trying to crawl out of.

South-east Asia, caught in the geopolitical vice grip of the US-China rivalry, watches this with growing dread. Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand — they’re already feeling the heat from supply chain disruptions and oil market volatility. In Singapore’s boardrooms and Jakarta’s mosques, the question is the same: if the Iran-Israel war spreads, what happens to the fragile economic recovery we’re clinging to?

The final course

This isn’t a war with tidy endings. There’s no Mission Accomplished banner waiting to be unfurled. No grand parade. Just a pile of bodies and the sickening taste of regret.

Israel has the right to defend itself. Iran is a threat. But Bibi’s bombing run wasn’t strategy. It was desperation masquerading as courage.

We live in a world where the adults are exhausted and the lunatics run the show. Where headlines outrun diplomacy. Where every drone strike feels like the last word — until the next one drops.

So here we are. Staring down another Middle Eastern war, one airstrike away from a regional apocalypse. And all because one man believed his prophecy — and decided to make it come true.

Come hungry. Leave humbled.

Even war has its tragic poetry.

*This is the personal opinion of the writer or publication and does not necessarily represent the views of Malay Mail.